The economic calendar that moves the market
The data releases and rate decisions that move the dollar, gold and stock markets, in Lima time. US, Europe, Asia and Latin America, each event with its source.
Economic agenda
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The .ics file opens with Google Calendar, Outlook or your phone's calendar, and alerts you 15 minutes before each timed release. The subscription updates itself, but it includes only the verified agenda for Latin America, the Fed and the ECB: the weekly data for the US, Europe and Asia change every week, so add those with each event's button or with «Download these events».
How we define impact
Weekly agenda (US, Europe, Asia)
It comes from ForexFactory's public weekly feed, and the impact level is the one that source assigns, untouched. The forecast is its consensus; the published figure is not in that feed: you will find it in the market flash and in the news.
Latin America, Fed and ECB (official source)
Dates taken from each central bank or institute, with the link in the event. Fixed AR4 rule: high = rate decision, inflation and quarterly GDP; medium = monthly activity, Lima employment, minutes and reports; low = the rest. No forecast: we do not publish forecasts.
The time, always Lima's
Peru does not change its clocks, but the US (November 1) and Europe (October 25) do: the October Fed decision comes out at 13:00 Lima time and the December one at 14:00. The page does this calculation for you. If you are in another country, press «My time». With no official time, the event appears as «No official time» and we do not make one up.
Quick glossary: the terms you will see most in the calendar
- CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- Measures how much the prices of a basket of goods and services rose. In Peru it is published by INEI on the first day of each month (Metropolitan Lima); in Mexico, by INEGI (INPC); in Brazil, by IBGE (IPCA); in Argentina, by INDEC.
- Reference rate
- The rate set by the central bank: the BCRP in Peru, Banxico in Mexico, the Central Bank of Chile, the Banco de la República in Colombia, the Copom in Brazil (Selic) and the Fed in the US. It is the event with the greatest structural impact on any currency.
- PIB / PBI
- The total value of what an economy produces in a period. In Peru INEI publishes the «National production» every month, which works as a monthly GDP.
- NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)
- The most important monthly employment figure in the United States. It usually comes out on the first Friday of each month and is one of those that most move the dollar and gold.
- Unemployment rate
- The percentage of the labor force that is looking for work without finding it.
- PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
- A monthly survey of companies that anticipates activity. Above 50 indicates expansion; below, contraction.
- Trade balance
- The difference between what a country exports and imports. It weighs heavily on the exchange rate of economies that export commodities, such as Peru and Chile (copper, gold).
- Minutes
- The detailed summary of the latest monetary policy meeting, published weeks after the decision. It usually reveals nuances that do not appear in the statement.
- Core CPI
- CPI without food and energy, the most volatile prices. Central banks watch it because it better reflects underlying inflation.
- Basis points (bp)
- One hundredth of a percentage point: raising the rate from 4,25 % to 4,50 % is raising it 25 basis points.
- Acronyms you will see next to the data
- MM or m/m = monthly change. YY or y/y = annual change. SA = seasonally adjusted. Idx = index (a reference number, not a percentage).
And how do I interpret it if I'm a beginner?
The calendar shows numbers but doesn't tell you «buy» or «sell», and that is as it should be. These are the three values that always come up and how to read them.
The figure from last time (for a rate decision, the current rate). It is a reference to see whether the economy is improving or worsening.
What analysts expected. The market has already priced it in.
The actual figure. You see it here once an official source has published it (with its link); for the weekly agenda ones, in the market flash and in the news.
The golden rule for reading a data release
What moves the price is not the number itself, but the surprise: how different the actual figure came out from what was expected.
- If it comes in above the forecast on inflation, employment or growth, it tends to strengthen that currency (the market anticipates higher rates).
- If it comes in lower, it tends to weaken it.
- If it comes in as expected, there is usually little movement: it was already priced in.
It is a general rule, not a law: context and other data also matter. To practice it with examples, see the Fundamental analysis and news module in the academy.
Why this data moves the market so much
The price of any asset reflects what the market already expects. When a figure is released, what moves the price is the gap between the actual figure and what was priced in. A CPI that comes out exactly as expected may not move anything even if it is high; one that surprises by a few tenths can move the dollar in seconds.
That is why following the calendar is not just knowing «which day there is news»: it is knowing what is priced in before the figure, to understand the reaction when it arrives. In «Details» of each published event you can see, with real 15-minute candles, how the price moved right afterward.
Risk warning. Trading around an economic data release is among the riskiest things in trading: the price can jump and spreads can widen in seconds, and an order may be filled at a worse price than the one you see. This calendar is informational and educational, not an investment recommendation. Dates and times may change: confirm with the official source linked on each event.